Grupo La Colina

THE ECONOMIST

Hugo Chavez worries ever less about maintaining a semblance of democracy

OPPONENTS of Hugo Chavez have often bewailed his knack of cloaking authoritarianism in outwardly democratic forms. So perhaps they should be grateful that the Venezuelan president is increasingly abandoning the pretence. On January 23rd--a date on which the country commemorates the 1958 uprising that ousted its last military dictator--cable-television operators were told to stop carrying RCTV, a pro-opposition channel. It was the latest in a series of recent moves that have placed Mr Chavez's elected regime within a hair's breadth of dictatorship. Three years ago RCTV's broadcasting licence was not renewed, confining it to cable. Now the government has ruled that, despite being a cable

channel, it (and many other channels) must obey a broadcasting law that requires it, among other things, to transmit the president's lengthy speeches live, whenever he feels like it. The urge came over him almost immediately, at a political rally. When RCTV declined to oblige him, its fate was sealed. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (part of the Organisation of American States) complained that RCTV and the other channels had been punished without due process, and called for their rights to be restored. The response of the regime, which has repeatedly snubbed the regional body, was to blow a raspberry.

Venezuelans are due to vote for a new parliament in September. Last year Mr Chavez won a referendum he had called to abolish term limits for presidents and other senior elected officials. Now, opinion polls are showing unprecedented levels of discontent over crime, inflation, and power and water shortages. There were big anti-government protests in Caracas, the capital, after RCTV was shut off, which were countered by the government's more modest rally.

These problems, and the resulting discontent, may well intensify in coming months. Even the president's undoubted charisma has not rendered him immune. In one recent poll 66% said they did not want him to continue in office when his present term ends in three years. If the September elections were run according to the constitution, which mandates proportional representation, Mr Chavez would surely lose his strong parliamentary majority. But a new electoral law allows the largest single group to sweep the board. The government-dominated electoral authority redrew constituency boundaries this month, with the effect of minimising potential opposition gains. The closure of RCTV,

one of the main outlets for anti-Chavez voices, seems to follow the same logic.

In his annual address to Parliament, earlier this month, the president announced (to no one's surprise) that he was now a Marxist. He no longer pays lip-service to the separation of powers, which in practice disappeared some time ago. The head of the Supreme Court, Luisa Estella Morales, said last month that such niceties merely "weaken the state".

A leading member of the ruling United Socialist Party, Aristobulo Isturiz, called for the dismantling of local government, which Mr Chavez wants to replace with communes.

The 1999 constitution guarantees property rights and the existence of private enterprise. But the president now says that private profit is

the root of all evil. Callers to the government's consumer-protection body, Indepabis, find its hold-music is a jingle about evil capitalists. Insisting that his recent currency devaluation was no

excuse for price rises, Mr Chavez had Indepabis close down hundreds of

stores for "speculation". He told Parliament to change the law on expropriations and seized a French-controlled supermarket chain to add to the government's new retail conglomerate, Comerso.

The opposition parties, wrangling over "unity" candidates for parliament, are ill equipped to deal with this onslaught. But there are signs of tension within the regime itself. On January 25th the

vice-president, Ramon Carrizalez, resigned, along with his wife, the

environment minister. He cited personal reasons, but that a close ally,

the minister of public banking, also quit (over unexplained "health

problems") set tongues wagging.

Rumours from within the recesses of the regime attribute Mr

Carrizalez's departure to manoeuvring by the public-works minister,

Diosdado Cabello, who is widely regarded as the second-most-powerful

figure in the government. Mr Carrizalez was also defence minister and

was replaced in that job by a general close to Mr Cabello. Thereby Mr

Cabello, who is reputed to have designs on the presidency, has further

consolidated his grip on the army. The president's determination to cling to power and intolerance of dissent have sapped his popularity and may, if the elections go badly

for him, sap his ability to govern. He is--as Vladimir Villegas, a journalist and former ally, wrote this week-- now trapped in the autocratic scheme he has chosen to follow. That scheme bears scant resemblance to the liberal democracy under which he was elected.

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